Preseason Rankings
James Madison
Colonial Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#176
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.0#184
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#189
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#165
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.6% 8.2% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.8 14.8
.500 or above 58.2% 68.1% 42.2%
.500 or above in Conference 57.8% 63.9% 47.8%
Conference Champion 7.2% 9.1% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 7.9% 5.7% 11.5%
First Four1.1% 1.1% 1.0%
First Round6.2% 7.8% 3.6%
Second Round0.6% 0.9% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Carolina (Away) - 61.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 0.40.0 - 0.4
Quad 1b0.1 - 0.90.1 - 1.3
Quad 20.8 - 2.80.9 - 4.1
Quad 34.2 - 5.65.1 - 9.6
Quad 410.4 - 3.915.5 - 13.5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 290   @ East Carolina W 74-68 62%    
  Nov 16, 2018 301   @ Charlotte W 79-72 64%    
  Nov 20, 2018 265   The Citadel W 87-82 77%    
  Nov 23, 2018 245   @ Oakland W 75-71 53%    
  Nov 24, 2018 186   Northern Illinois W 72-71 51%    
  Nov 25, 2018 283   Oral Roberts W 73-67 68%    
  Nov 29, 2018 345   Coppin St. W 75-61 93%    
  Dec 01, 2018 102   @ Old Dominion L 63-68 23%    
  Dec 04, 2018 149   Radford L 65-67 55%    
  Dec 07, 2018 129   @ George Mason L 71-74 30%    
  Dec 20, 2018 267   @ Fordham W 69-64 57%    
  Dec 28, 2018 164   @ William & Mary L 77-78 38%    
  Dec 30, 2018 231   @ Elon W 73-70 50%    
  Jan 03, 2019 197   UNC Wilmington W 77-76 64%    
  Jan 05, 2019 112   College of Charleston L 66-70 46%    
  Jan 12, 2019 237   Towson W 71-67 71%    
  Jan 17, 2019 239   @ Delaware W 71-67 51%    
  Jan 19, 2019 280   @ Drexel W 76-71 58%    
  Jan 24, 2019 156   Hofstra L 75-76 56%    
  Jan 26, 2019 70   Northeastern L 67-75 32%    
  Jan 31, 2019 112   @ College of Charleston L 66-70 27%    
  Feb 02, 2019 197   @ UNC Wilmington W 77-76 44%    
  Feb 09, 2019 237   @ Towson W 71-67 51%    
  Feb 14, 2019 280   Drexel W 76-71 75%    
  Feb 16, 2019 239   Delaware W 71-67 70%    
  Feb 21, 2019 70   @ Northeastern L 67-75 17%    
  Feb 23, 2019 156   @ Hofstra L 75-76 36%    
  Feb 28, 2019 231   Elon W 73-70 70%    
  Mar 02, 2019 164   William & Mary L 77-78 57%    
Projected Record 15.5 - 13.5 9.1 - 8.9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.7 2.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 7.2 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 2.9 3.5 2.5 0.8 0.2 11.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.5 4.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 12.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.7 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 13.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.5 3.2 0.7 0.0 12.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.1 2.8 0.4 0.0 12.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.2 2.4 0.3 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.5 3.5 1.7 0.1 0.0 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.8 2.5 1.0 0.1 6.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 4.9 10th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.5 3.8 6.0 7.6 9.7 10.9 11.8 11.4 10.1 8.5 6.4 4.6 2.9 1.5 0.5 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 89.6% 1.4    1.2 0.2
15-3 72.7% 2.1    1.4 0.7 0.0
14-4 37.2% 1.7    0.8 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 17.3% 1.1    0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.2% 7.2 4.3 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 98.0% 57.4% 40.7% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.4%
17-1 0.5% 64.2% 51.0% 13.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 26.9%
16-2 1.5% 44.3% 40.4% 3.9% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 6.6%
15-3 2.9% 23.8% 22.3% 1.5% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.2 1.9%
14-4 4.6% 22.4% 21.8% 0.6% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 3.6 0.8%
13-5 6.4% 15.7% 15.7% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 5.4 0.0%
12-6 8.5% 9.8% 9.8% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 7.6
11-7 10.1% 7.2% 7.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 9.4
10-8 11.4% 4.8% 4.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 10.9
9-9 11.8% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 11.5
8-10 10.9% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.2 10.6
7-11 9.7% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 9.6
6-12 7.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.6
5-13 6.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.9
4-14 3.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.8
3-15 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.5
2-16 1.1% 1.1
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 6.6% 6.3% 0.2% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.5 93.4 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.0 1.8 47.3 1.8 49.1